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A-6 Tuesday, September 6, 2022 South Gibson Star-Times America and Russia are in a new kind of war By James Carafano National Security and Foreign Policy Specialist The war against Ukraine has brought U.S.-Russian re- lations to their lowest point in modern histor y. Russia is demonstrating that it has no regard for human rights, na- tions' sovereignty and territo- rial integrity, or nations' right to determine their own future. Russian President Vladimir Putin clearly has imperialist ambitions. Ukraine did not provoke the war, and Putin likely would prefer to convert Ukraine into Russian territor y once again. This is not another Cold War. There is nothing "cold" about naked, violent aggres- sion. This is a new kind of war and the U.S. and its allies in the transatlantic communi- ty are going to learn how to fight. For starters, the trans- atlantic community needs to checkmate Putin's two most important weapons—his mil- itar y, and Russia's use of en- ergy to blackmail, coerce, and profit. STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIGHT To hold the Russian Feder- ation accountable for its war crimes in Ukraine, support Ukraine, and strengthen the North Atlantic Treaty Orga- nization (NATO), the United States has taken several ac- tions. (The following list is not exhaustive of all U.S. actions taken since Februar y 24, the start of the war, however.) Washington has imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on Moscow, sending the Rus- sian economy south. The Rus- sian ruble now is worth less than one cent in the American economy. The U.S. imposed restrictions on transactions with Russia's central bank and transactions by U.S. financial institutions with Sberbank, and imposed sanctions on Rus- sia's VTB Bank and four other financial institutions, VEB, the Russian Direct Investment Fund, the Nord Stream 2 pipe- line and its chief executive of- ficer, several defense-related entities, Vladimir Putin, Rus- sian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, several Kremlin-con- nected oligarchs, and more. It also cut selected Rus- sian banks from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Fi- nancial Telecommunication (SWIFT) messaging system to "ensure that these banks are disconnected from the inter- national financial system and harm their ability to operate globally." In addition, the United States is providing to Ukraine advanced weaponr y, such as Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft systems, additional militar y assistance including grenade launchers, rifles, pistols, body armor, and helmets, and humanitarian assistance. The United States also sent approximately 14,000 troops to Germany, Poland, and Romania to reinforce NA- TO's Eastern flank, in case the war encroaches onto NATO territor y. Icy U.S.-Russian relations also have had several con- sequences in recent histor y. Over the past few years, the U.S. and Russia have imposed multiple tit-for-tat actions, in- cluding expelling diplomats and setting restrictions on the number of diplomatic staff al- lowed to work in each other's countr y. According to a senior Biden administration official, the United States has been forced to cut its diplomatic staff in Russia by approximately 90 percent in the last four years. It is also difficult for U.S. citizens to visit Russia due to a Level 4 travel advisor y imposed by the U.S. State Department, and likewise for Russians to visit the United States due to most visa ser vices being halt- ed. Three U.S. citizens—Paul Whelan, Trevor Reed, and Brittney Griner—current- ly are imprisoned in Russia. Whelan and Reed, two for- mer U.S. Marines, most like- ly are imprisoned on fabri- cated charges, and Griner, a Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) star, is imprisoned allegedly for trans- porting hashish oil in her lug- gage at the Moscow airport. The U.S. State Department is working toward all three of their releases. Connected to the war in Ukraine, Russia has created a new law that criminalizes any reporting that "contradicts the [Russian] government's version of events," which has shut down, whether temporar- ily or permanently, American media outlets in Russia such as Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and The New York Times. Similarly, RT America ceased production and laid off most of its staff, most likely because it could no longer be profitable for reasons tied to the war in Ukraine. NATO RESPONSES Russia's second invasion of Ukraine has proven, at least initially, a severe shock to Eu- rope. For the time being, it's put to bed questions around the usefulness of NATO and supercharged the obvious need for the alliance's upcom- ing strategic concept to place a spotlight on collective defense as the core task of the alliance for the foreseeable future. Russia's actions have laid bare the reality that militar y capabilities remain crucial for securing freedom, especially in the era of great power com- petition. The questions for NATO moving for ward are threefold: A) How does the alliance re- spond to the shifted geopolit- ical map of Europe in terms of operational planning? B) How will alliance members respond to the now obvious need to live up to the North Atlantic Trea- ty's Article III requirement to "maintain and develop their individual and collective ca- pacity to resist armed attack?" C) Finally, how can NATO continue to aid Ukraine in de- fending its sovereignty against a Russian regime bent on ex- tinguishing their existence? In addition to scrambling the political map of Europe, Russia's war against Ukraine has dramatically altered the physical landscape of the Eu- ropean theater. Russian forces now control additional areas of Ukrainian territor y, specifical- ly in the nation's south, east, and near Ukraine's northeast- ern borders with Belarus and Russia. Russia's has expanded control over Ukrainian territo- r y along the Black Sea, seek- ing to consolidate its position and eventually push for ward to link with the occupied Transnistria region of Moldo- va. It's too early to determine the outcome of the conflict, however, even if we assume Russian forces are pushed out of Ukraine, Russia's de facto absorption of Belarus necessi- tates NATO update its opera- tional planning. Alliance members should also be aware of ways in which Russia will utilize the war in Ukraine to impose additional economic pressures against Black Sea nations. A recent example of this tac- tic is Russia's disputed claim that mines laid by Ukraine had become unmoored during a storm and were drifting southward. As Bulgarian Rear Admiral Kiril Mihailov told a news conference, the claims "may be more a matter of com- plicating shipping and instill- ing fear and tension among sailors and coastal states rath- er than a real threat." Russia's war against Ukraine has awakened many NATO members from their defense spending slumber, resulting in new pledges to attain the NATO spending benchmark of 2% of GDP. Rus- sia's 2014 invasion of Ukraine caused a shift in threat percep- tions amongst many NATO members, particularly those closest to Russia. This chang- ing threat assessment, along- side perhaps in part, the stri- dency of U.S. calls for more defense spending, led to real increases. As NATO's Secretar y Gen- eral's Annual Report noted, "2020 marked the sixth con- secutive year of growth in de- fense spending by European Allies and Canada, with an increase in real terms of 3.9% from 2019 to 2020. Moreover, 11 Allies met the guideline of spending 2% of their Gross Do- mestic Product on defense, up from just three Allies in 2014." Putin's actions have super- charged this trend, leading some nations such as Germa- ny and Denmark, for instance, to announce plans to spend 2% of GDP. Other nations, such as Estonia and Romania, which spend 2%, to increase defense budgets even further. At March's extraordinar y NATO Summit in Brussels, Secretar y General Stolten- berg announced that NATO allies who have not attained 2% will bring plans to raise spend- ing to that level to the next NATO Summit taking place in Madrid in June. Also at the Summit, NATO announced the creation of four addition- al battle groups in Bulgar- ia, Hungar y, Romania, and Slovakia. These will join the existing NATO battle groups deployed in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. NATO must be cognizant of the potential that, however unlikely, Putin could decide to expand his war against Ukraine to target a NATO member and prepare accord- ingly. The alliance must move beyond mere "tripwire" force deployments to large, perma- nently deployed capabilities in eastern member states to adequately deter Putin from contemplating future action against a NATO member. Finally, NATO has a role to play in organizing deliv- eries of aid and weaponr y to Ukraine. Since the war began, NATO member states have sent weapons and humani- tarian aid to Ukraine. At the Brussels summit, members made additional commitments to Ukraine for weapons deliv- eries, including further an- titank weapons, drones, and anti-ship missiles. While this aid has been donated on a bilateral basis between individual nations and Ukraine, NATO can and should take a leading role in organizing aid from its mem- ber states to Ukraine which should over time better max- imize the impact on western aid on the ground in Ukraine. FIGHTING FOR ABUNDANT, AFFORDABLE, RELIABLE ENERGY Europe is facing an energy crisis. In the European con- text, Russia most benefits from the current energy cri- sis. Never one to pass up an opportunity to turn a geopoliti- cal crisis and to his advantage, President Putin has used the energy shortage in Europe to give Russia the upper hand. Europe already depends on Russian natural gas for 40 percent of its needs. In total, almost 200 billion cubic me- ters of natural gas are now imported from the countr y annually due to declining Eu- ropean production and rising demand. Thanks to Russia's inva- sion of Ukraine, Nord Stream 2 is dead. However, as long as Europeans keep buying gas from Russia they will continue to indirectly fund Russia's war machine against Ukraine. Europe needs to do a better job at diversifying its energy resources away from Russia. This can be done by Europe looking south in- stead of east for new sources of energy. For example, the South- ern Gas Corridor connects gas from the Caspian Sea to southern Europe and has the potential to supply 60 billion cubic meters per annum of natural gas to European mar- kets. Currently, the South- ern Gas Corridor is only delivering 10 billion cubic meters per annum. There is also talk of finally building a Trans-Caspian Pipeline to bring natural gas from Cen- tral Asia to Europe bypassing Russia. This pipeline would connect to the Southern Gas Corridor. A pipeline is the only eco- nomically viable way to move natural gas across the Cas- pian Sea. This means that right now there is no profit- able way to get Central Asia's gas to Europe without go- ing through Russia or Iran. Europe should be taking a leading role in making the proposed doubling down on a reality. In addition, Europe's ener- gy security can be bolstered by the Three Seas Initiative. Launched in 2016 to facilitate the development of energy and infrastructure ties among 12 nations in eastern, central and southern Europe, the initiative aims to strengthen trade, infrastructure, ener- gy and political cooperation among countries bordering the Adriatic Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea. As a ves- tige of the Cold War, most in- frastructure in the region runs east to west, stymying greater regional interconnectedness. Developing north-south inter- connections and pipelines will boost Europe's energy securi- ty. HOW THE WEST CAN WIN THE PEACE IN UKRAINE Russia has a track record of using energy as a tool of aggression. As Nord Stream 2 gets closer to being fully operational and as winter ap- proaches, do not expect Rus- sia to help Europeans solve their energy crisis. Each bar- rel of oil and cubic meter of gas that Europe can buy else- where other than Russia will make it more secure. Finally, the U.S. should boost LNG exports to Eu- rope American energy com- panies continue to be a major reliable and cost competitive supplier of natural gas to Eu- ropean markets. Upon Con- gress' lifting of a ban on U.S. export of natural gas (and oil) in 2015, U.S. export capacity has grown from negligible amounts to being among the top three exporting countries in the world and meeting roughly 19 percent of global demand. The U.S. will have the larg- est LNG expor t capacity in the world by the end of 2022 with the completion of the Sabine Pass and Calcasieu Pass facilities in Louisiana and uprates to increase pro- duction capacity at several existing facilities (for a to- tal of 13.9 billion cubic feet per day, compared to 11.6 in 2021). An eighth LNG expor t facility in Texas is expected to come online by 2024 and the Federal Ener- gy Regulator y Commission has approved several other projects which are not yet under constr uction. In Oc- tober 2021, LNG expor ters in the U.S. were operating beyond capacity and the EIA expects U.S. expor ts to be 16 percent more than last year in response to new capacity and high demand for natural gas in Europe and Asia. Each barrel of oil and cubic meter of gas that Europe can buy elsewhere other than Rus- sia will make it more secure. While these proposals alone are not enough to completely decouple Europe from its en- ergy dependency on Russia, they are a good start. TIME FOR CHOOSING After the war against Ukraine, Putin will be faced with the challenge of re- building his militar y and the Russian economy. In these months, or perhaps years, the Kremlin will be limited in its capacity to threaten the transatlantic communi- ty. That is exactly when the West needs to step boldly for ward with serious defense and energy policy to ensure future Putin threat can be stif f armed. Commentary PUZZLED ABOUT WHAT TO READ? ..and you will have your solution. subscribe to 812-753-3553 South Gibson sgstartimes.com/edition Web, Smartphone, Tablet Streamline the Headline! 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