El Nacional de Tulsa

EL NACIONAL DE TULSA T-3 VIERNES 1 DE MAYO, 2015 • www.noticiasoklahoma.com ENGLISH 918-592-2245 (BAIL) www.rustyrobertsbailbonds.com Rusty Roberts dueño/agente miembro de la abb Los precios más bajos de la ciudad ¡GARANTIZADO! RAPIDO SERVICIO A: • Tulsa • Bixby • Broken Arrow • Jenks • Glenpool CIUDAD, CONDADO, ESTATAL SERVICIO LAS 24 HORAS SERVICIO RAPIDO Y CORTÉS 301 N. Denver • Tulsa, OK (Exactamente al frente del Tulsa County Jail) D o R emus asociaDos y 918-477-7709 •Accidentes de auto •Lesiones en el trabajo •Multas de tráfico •Testamentos Si está buscando un abogado honesto que le guste ayudar a la gente 10202 E. 41 st St. Tulsa, OK (En la 41 y Hwy 169) ¡Llame Hoy! Con más de 30 años de experiencia Se habla español www.DoremusAssociate.com POINT OF VIEW RAOUL LOWERY-CONTRERAS NOTICIAS.NACIONAL@COXINET.NET Hispanic political analysis is usually wrong e late Washington Post pri- ze-winning reporter David Broder shook up the political world 35 years ago with his book Changing of the Guard: Power and Leader- ship in America; in it he correctly predicted the demise of the long- entrenched Democrat Party of the South but missed today's Hispa- nic political growth and effect by a million miles. As brilliant as that book was, as was his Washington Post work, if he were alive today, he would be part of the bulk of non-Hispanic pundits, writers, reporters and pro- fessors who simply do not unders- tand Hispanic political effects. His work on Hispanics would flunk the test of reality. ere are 55 million Hispanics in the USA. Hispanics aren't a race; they are ethnics who can be of any race and have different natio- nal origins. eir median natio- nal age is 27 while the non-Hispa- nic population has a median age of 40+. While lagging in education for decades, recent graduating clas- ses of 2012 and 2013 have burst through the 80 percent gradua- tion rate for a historical first and with that they show exponential growth in college attendance. His- panic doctorate candidates reflect the growth of total Hispanic colle- ge attendance and are second only to Asian Americans in minority numbers. My alma mater, San Diego State University reflects this revo- lution in Hispanic higher educa- tion students. When I entered in 1958, there were 7,000 total stu- dents and maybe 50 Hispanics. Today there are Point of View Hispanic political analysis is usually wrong By: Raoul Lowery-Contreras 25,000 total students of which 5,000 are Hispanic under-graduate and graduate students. Taking a macro approach to loo- king at Hispanics works when one looks at such items as total popu- lation, age demographics, geogra- phic distribution, income levels, etc. Where it breaks down, howe- ver, is in political analysis. When one sees political polls or exit polls of Hispanics one impor- tant analytical ingredient is usua- lly missing; to wit: the significant differences between the various "Hispanic" groups that are diffe- rentiated by national groups. For example, most national exit polls of the 2012 presidential elec- tion between President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney conclu- ded, according to the media paid- forexit polls, that Obama scored 71 percent of the Hispanic vote to 27 percent for Romney. Similar exit poll results were indicated in the 2014 mid-term elections. ese numbers are highly mis- leading because there is no break- down of the numbers by ethnicity or national grouping. It has been said that there are more Mexican-origin people within sight of Los Angeles City Hall than all the Cuban Americans, Puerto Ricans, Dominicans, Central and South Americans in the United Sta- tes combined. Nationally the Pew Research Center reported in 2012 that of the 55 million Hispanics, 35 million are of Mexican origin (65%); 4.7 million are Puerto Rican (9%), 2 million are Cuban Americans (3.7%), 2 million are Salvadorans (3.7%), 1.5 million are Dominicans and 1.1 million are Guatemalans. ere are 2.8 million other Central and South American origin people as well. Here is where the political analy- sis of Hispanics falls apart – those numbers don't tell the story. For example, the most loyal Hispanic voters in the country are Democrat Puerto Ricans and Domi- nicans; they are centered in New York. Some live in New Jersey and Central Florida. Subtract out the Puerto Ricans and Dominicans from the New York and New Jersey votes and both states would go Democrat without Hispanic Democrats. Florida is different. ose Puer- to Ricans have off-set 50 years of Republican domination of South Florida Hispanic votes. Florida is a toss-up state in Presidential elec- tions because of the Puerto Ricans. us, they are important in Flo- rida as they are not in New York, result wise. On the other hand, in last November's Florida Governor's race, Miami-Dade Cubans 40-plus aged voters voted 70 percent for RepublicanRick Scott giving him a 60,000 vote statewide victory out of millions cast. Out West, Hispanics voted hea- vily for Republican Governor Brian Sandoval in Nevada where Obama won in 2012. Republican Sandoval won with 70 percent of the vote. In New Mexico, Susana Martinez won reelection in a state Obama carried twice; she won with 56 per- cent of the vote. Hispanic exit polls in Nevada and New Mexico were not done. Nationally for Congress, Hispa- nics gave 62 percent of their votes to Democrats and 36 percent to Republicans (2014). Several individual state races showed significant Hispanic diffe- rence from the national results with the differences based on Mexican origin. e fewer Hispanic voters of Mexican origin, the lower GOP votes. In the 2014 Georgia Sena- te race, 42 percent of Hispanics (mostly Mexican) voted Republi- can, 47 percent voted Republican for Governor. In Texas, mostly Mexican voters gave 47 percent of their vote to Republican Sena- tor John Cronyn and 44 percent to Republican Gregg Abbott for Governor. Analysts and scholars need to study the various groups within the over-all Hispanic community in future looks at Hispanic votes. If they don't, national exit polls are meaningless especially when looked at by political parties in developing strategies for the bur- geoning Hispanic vote.

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