Gameday Extra

11.25.2022 KEYS TO VICTORY MATT JONES & SCOTTIE BORDELON WHOLEHOGSPORTS.COM Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson became the Razorbacks' quarterback of the future two years ago against Missouri at Faurot Field. Filling in for an injured Feleipe Franks, and playing with what he called "messed up" ligaments in his knee that he suffered earlier in the second half, Jefferson led a 13-play, 75-yard touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter that culminated in a 14-yard touchdown pass to Mike Woods with 43 seconds remaining. Arkansas coach Sam Pittman opted to try a two-point conversion to give the Razorbacks the lead, and Jefferson found Woods off a deflection for what appeared to be the winning score, putting Arkansas ahead 48-47. Missouri kicked a 32-yard field goal as time expired to win 50-48. Arkansas' defensive failure did little to detract from what Jefferson accomplished during the go-ahead drive. After two incompletions to set up a third-and-10 from his own 25, Jefferson completed four consecutive passes for 34 yards and was complemented by a couple of first-down runs by TJ Hammonds to put the Razorbacks well into Mizzou territory. Jefferson finished the drive 5 of 8 for 48 yards. "Before we went out there I had my mind, 'This right here is going to determine if this is for me or not. I've got to prove the doubters wrong, that I can play in this league,'" Jefferson said last year. "I went out there and gave it all I've got." Arkansas' last go-ahead touchdown drive in the final five minutes of an SEC road game had been engineered by Ryan Mallett at Georgia in 2010. Jefferson led the Arkansas offense so well and impressed Pittman and offensive coordinator Kendal Briles so much that they ended communication with a transfer quarterback following the game. That decision has turned out in their favor. Returning to the scene of his 306-yard, 4-touchdown game from 2020 on Friday, Jefferson has a final chance this regular season to play the villain in a road venue. It is among the things he does best, Pittman has said, and Jefferson embraces the boos and hostile crowds. "He's a competitor and wants to do well at home and away," Pittman said in late October, "but I think that might just be some competitive emotions that he's having there. He really has played extremely well on the road." In his career, the quarterback has been remarkably efficient and effective through the air in true road games. Jefferson has thrown for 1,839 yards and 16 touchdowns against 1 interception in such outings. Six of his eight career interceptions have come in games in Reynolds Razorback Stadium. This season, he has recorded eight passing scores and zero picks away from home. He did not play in the Oct. 8 road game at Mississippi State. Missouri this season is 5-6 overall, but 4-2 in home games. And in those games, opponents have completed just 54.9% of pass attempts for 8 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Vanderbilt, Kentucky and New Mexico State averaged 175.7 passing yards in Missouri's last three home games. Jefferson, according to Pittman, felt strong physically the day after Arkansas' 42-27 victory over Ole Miss. He is ready to go against the Tigers and build on a three-score performance in his return to the lineup against Ole Miss. In road games in 2022, Jefferson has hit 70.3% of his throws for 601 yards, and the Razorbacks are 2-0. Can he help make it 3-0? RUN GAME A primary aspect to Arkansas' success this season has been its run game. In their wins, the Razorbacks are averaging 269.8 yards and 5.8 yards per carry on the ground. Compare to that averages of 189.8 yards and 4 yards per carry in their losses. A back-up quarterback started two of those losses, and a third loss came when Jefferson was less than full health with a shoulder/ clavicle injury. With a healthy Jefferson, the run game hums. His ability to read the defense in the zone-read option has been a contributing factor to Raheim Sanders' big season, with 1,379 rushing yards through 11 games. Jefferson is always a threat to run himself. He has gained 611 rushing yards this season, but has just 472 net yards when sacks are factored. Sanders (232) and Jefferson (47) combined for most of Arkansas' 335 rushing yards last week against Ole Miss. It was a welcome sight for the Razorbacks, who struggled to run the ball in losses to Liberty and LSU with Jefferson injured. Statistically, Missouri's run defense is similar to LSU and will be the best the Razorbacks have played since the Alabama game Oct. 1. The Tigers allow 128.5 rushing yards per game. Pittman said the key to Mizzou's run defense is a one-high-safety look that puts an extra defender in the box. "They're going, 'You're not going to run the football on us. You've got to throw it,'" Pittman said. "I think they're very, very confident in their secondary, and they should be. They have played really good ball. But they're going to stop the run. To me, that's what they do and force you to throw the football." Missouri has had some lapses in run defense, but none at home. The Tigers allowed 235 yards and 4 touchdowns on 43 carries at Kansas State; 231 yards and 1 touchdown on 32 carries at Florida; and 264 yards and 5 touchdowns on 37 carries at Tennessee. Georgia averaged a healthy 4.7 yards per carry against the Tigers, but only carried the ball 36 times while rallying from a second-half deficit. HOGS' DEFENSE An old football saying came to mind following Arkansas' victory over Ole Miss last week: stats don't score points. The Razorbacks allowed 703 yards — the third most in program history — but won 42-27. At one point, the Rebels had more than 500 yards and only two field goals to show for it. Arkansas' defense forced three turnovers, Ole Miss missed a field goal attempt and failed to convert a fourth down. A trusted football voice explained this week that modern-day defensive success is judged by turnovers forced and how many field goals are forced in red-zone situations. Most offenses have the capability to put up big numbers, so each drive without a touchdown is key. That was the case for three quarters against Ole Miss. Pittman said earlier this week the Razorbacks changed their defensive game plan later in the game to keep the Rebels from hitting a big pass and underestimated Ole Miss' willingness to stick with the run game that racked up huge numbers. The Rebels had two running backs finish with more than 200 rushing yards. Credit should be given to Arkansas defensive coordinator Barry Odom for his work since the Razorbacks' bye week in October. Auburn, Liberty and LSU combined to score five touchdowns against Arkansas' starting defense, and Ole Miss did not score a touchdown until the fourth quarter of a blowout. The Razorbacks' defense this week faces a Missouri offense that ranks near the bottom of the SEC in most statistical categories. The Tigers are 10th in rushing, 11th in scoring and 12th in passing. Receiver Dominic Lovett appears to be Mizzou's biggest big-play threat. Lovett averages 14.3 yards per reception, but only catches 4.5 passes per game. JEFFERSON GOING BACK TO WHERE IT ALL BEGAN AT MISSOURI See KEYS, Page 4 Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson has had two solid performances against Missouri. (David Beach) Arkansas at Missouri Florida at 16 Florida State South Carolina at 8 Clemson 25 Louisville at Kentucky Auburn at 7 Alabama 3 Michigan at 2 Ohio State 15 Notre Dame at 6 Southern Cal Arkansas Florida State Clemson Louisville Alabama Ohio State Southern Cal Arkansas Florida State Clemson Kentucky Alabama Ohio State Southern Cal Arkansas Florida State Clemson Louisville Alabama Ohio State Southern Cal Arkansas Florida State Clemson Louisville Alabama Ohio State Notre Dame Arkansas Florida Clemson Louisville Alabama Ohio State Notre Dame Arkansas Florida State Clemson Kentucky Alabama Ohio State Notre Dame Missouri Florida State South Carolina Louisville Alabama Ohio State Southern Cal Arkansas Florida Clemson Kentucky Alabama Ohio State Southern Cal GAMES PREDICTIONS Matt Jones 5-2 Scottie Bordelon 4-3 Tom Murphy 6-1 Ethan Westerman 5-2 Paul Boyd 4-3 Andrew Joseph 5-2 Rick Fires 5-2 Chip Souza 4-3 OVERALL LAST WEEK 55-22 48-29 53-24 55-22 52-25 55-22 53-24 47-30

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