Gameday Extra

11.19.2022 KEYS TO VICTORY MATT JONES & SCOTTIE BORDELON WHOLEHOGSPORTS.COM Two games stand out in the last generation or so of Arkansas football as the coldest. Most remember the Liberty Bowl when Alex Tejada kicked a field goal in overtime to give the Razorbacks a 20-17 win over East Carolina to end the 2009 season. The temperature at kickoff was 29 degrees, but the wind chill was 10 and fell throughout the night. Those of a certain age will also recall Arkansas' final Southwest Conference game on campus in 1991 — a 9-5 loss to Baylor that also included a kick-off temperature of 29 degrees and falling. Snow flurries fell throughout the game. There is thought that today's game might rival those as some of the coldest on record for the Razorbacks. The National Weather Service calls for a high of 42 degrees and a low of 19 Saturday in Fayetteville, and with a 6:30 p.m. kickoff, it is likely to be closer to the forecasted low by the time the game begins. Northwest winds will make it feel colder than the air temperature. The East Carolina and Baylor games — and the LSU game last week when it was 34 degrees at kickoff but warming throughout the afternoon — are reminders of how cold weather can slow offenses. Without its starting quarterback, Arkansas had 249 yards a week ago and would have recorded one of its worst offensive performances ever if not for a couple of long passes on its only touchdown drive in the fourth quarter. LSU was held to 284 yards, well below its season average of 445 yards coming into the game. Cold weather does not always slow offenses down. Arkansas quarterback Brandon Allen and Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott had one of the SEC's all- time best quarterback duels in Fayetteville seven years ago when the Razorbacks lost 51-50. The temperature at kickoff was 37 degrees and dropped throughout the game. The overarching feeling this week, though, is that Arkansas and Ole Miss might be in for a lower- scoring game — certainly lower than their 52-51 epic last year in Oxford, Miss. Arkansas coach Sam Pittman said he thinks the weather held down the scoring last week against LSU, and hopes for colder weather this week. "The colder the better," Pittman said, adding, "We're rooting for a freeze- out if we can get it." Ole Miss also played in cold conditions last week, a 30-24 loss to Alabama on its home field. The kick-off temperature was 39 degrees. While that game had a distinctly different feel than the Arkansas-LSU game that preceded it, it was still relatively low scoring. Ole Miss and Alabama were collectively scoring 79 points per game beforehand. "If it comes to rain or wind, that affects different things in the play-calling and stuff," Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin said. "But when it's just cold, that affects both teams, so it doesn't impact game-planning." As we wrote last week, oftentimes the team that can run the ball most effectively has a good chance to win cold-weather games. Ole Miss (259.6) and Arkansas (223.3) rank first and third, respectively, in the SEC in rushing yards per game. The Razorbacks ranked first prior to a loss to Liberty two weeks ago, and their average took a major hit a week ago with quarterback KJ Jefferson out of the lineup and Raheim Sanders limited to 46 yards on 12 carries. LSU's ability to run the ball — running back Josh Williams finished with 122 yards — helped set up three scoring drives and helped offset a bad day for quarterback Jayden Daniels, who was less accurate and sacked seven times. Ole Miss has the SEC's leading rusher, freshman Quinshon Judkins, who is averaging 116.9 yards on 20.5 attempts per game. Sanders led the SEC until last week and averages 114.7 yards on 18.5 attempts for the Razorbacks. Junior Zach Evans has also been a solid back for the Rebels this year and averages 76.9 yards on 12.7 carries. Judkins and Evans have combined to rush for 22 touchdowns. If Jefferson can play, as is expected, both teams have to honor the quarterback run. Jefferson averages 53.1 rushing yards and Ole Miss sophomore Jaxson Dart averages 50.8. The teams have similar rush defense stats. Arkansas ranks seventh and Ole Miss ranks eighth in the SEC in that category. For Arkansas, a key this week is to get a better push in short-yardage situations, which has been a problem against physical defensive fronts the last two weeks, but also against other teams this year. The Razorbacks failed on a third-and-goal from the LSU 1 in the first quarter last week, then failed to score on fourth-and-goal from the 3. It was the fourth time this season that Arkansas failed to score points when it had the ball at the opponent's 1-yard line. ARKANSAS QB It is often the case when a team is forced to play a back-up quarterback that the offense takes a step backward. Talented back-up quarterbacks are hard to keep on the roster. It isn't a problem exclusive to that position, but greener grass and the allure of playing time elsewhere seems to generate more transfer movement among quarterbacks. That said, Arkansas' Malik Hornsby has been in the program for three seasons and still has trouble moving the offense with consistency. You don't know what you will get when Hornsby or Cade Fortin are in the game, but more often than not it has been an ineffective offense. It has been alarming this season to see just how badly Arkansas' offense needs a healthy Jefferson, a team captain who is clearly the on- field leader. The Razorbacks had 483 yards without Jefferson at Mississippi State, but scored only 17 points due to interceptions thrown by Hornsby and drives stalling in the red zone. Jefferson played at less than full health two weeks ago against Liberty and the Razorbacks did not score a touchdown until the fourth quarter. They were held out of the end zone last week until Fortin replaced Hornsby and led a fourth-quarter touchdown drive. Compare that to the final two games in October, when Jefferson led the offense to totals of 644 yards at BYU and 520 yards at Auburn. The Razorbacks scored a combined 93 points in those two games. With the stellar play of Arkansas' defense of late, it is fair to think the Razorbacks might have won the last two games with a healthy starting quarterback. Playing dinged up, Jefferson still led scoring drives of 84 and 85 yards late against Liberty, and was a two-point conversion away from tying the game with 1:11 remaining. By all indications, Jefferson has taken more snaps in practice this week than he has the past two weeks. Those practice reps are important to playing efficient during the game. Jefferson is likely to do everything within his power to be ready to play Ole Miss. He grew up in Sardis, Miss. — a 30-mile drive to the Ole Miss campus in Oxford. The motivation to play the Rebels was evident last year when Jefferson had arguably the best performance of his career in his first college start in his home state. He accounted for 411 yards and six touchdowns, and led a last-minute touchdown drive that could have sent the game to overtime. The Razorbacks decided to try a two-point conversion with no time remaining, though, and Jefferson threw incomplete. If Jefferson is healthy, his presence should open the Arkansas offense to more opportunities than we've seen the past two weeks. He is accurate in the passing game and his decision making in the zone-read option is an underrated aspect to his game. "He's obviously a problem because he's so physical when he runs the ball," Kiffin said of Jefferson this week. "He can make you miss and run you over. We had a major issue with him." DALTON WAGNER Arkansas center Ricky Stromberg after the Razorbacks' loss to LSU last Saturday was asked about the impact of not having Wagner, COLD TEMPS MAY FREEZE POTENT OFFENSES IN TODAY'S CLASH WITH OLE MISS See KEYS, Page 4 Arkansas' running game has struggled the past two weeks without a healthy quarterback KJ Jefferson (left). Opposing defenses have held running back Raheim Sanders to his two lowest outputs of the year. 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