The Milwaukee Post

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Beloit Road Sunday Worship: 10 am www.Firstnazinfo.org 414-425-6430 To advertise in this section, contact Joan at 800-762-6219 ext. 5022 SUBJECT TO CHANGE Meteorologist Kapela dishes on 30-plus years in weather business By JOSH PERTTUNEN Conley News Service MILWAUKEE – Much like the weather that meteorologists attempt to chronicle, the science of predicting the weather is subject to change. With less than two months until his retirement, warning coordination meteorologist Rusty Kapela of the National Weather Service sat down with The Post to discuss recent weather events, predictive trends and technology and 36 years in the business. Dealing with drought The drought that held Wisconsin in its thrall since last year was finally alleviated this spring, Kapela said. Historically it was one of , the five worst droughts the area has experienced, a perfect storm of little rainfall, little groundwater storage, temperature and strain from growing things that needed water. "For most crops, there was the first cut and very little after that," Kapela recalled. "This meant that the price became astronomical for feed. You had farmers and ranchers selling off their beef cattle and dairy cows." Conditions were so bad that crops from the northern regions of the state were needed to assist the southern regions. Wells had to be dug even deeper than before. Excessive heat more deadly than tornados, floods The water that overflowed onto streets, seeped into basements and damaged property as part of this year's floods was devastating for some, but not as widespread as the floods of 2008, Kapela said. There were seven-day periods back then in which he advised that "you might as well build an ark." Floods are a tricky business, he said. As with all extreme weather warnings, meteorologists try to get the word out as soon as possible. "Often, people won't react to warnings unless you can personalize it," he said. Those who've experienced a flood before are more likely to act upon the news Kapela brings, especially if its details hit close to home. "Roads and shoulders can wash out, there's vehicle damage if water gets in the engine, you have mudslides, flooded basements, eroded farm fields and crops underwater at a time when it's much too late to replant them," he said. "Still, once a person is given an extreme weather warning, they have a choice what do with that information. We do live in a democratic society after all. They can ignore it, they can adjust travel , plans or they can get out of the affected area. You don't want to be camping in a floodplain, for example." "There is some frustration to see the information ignored," Kapela conceded. "But that's part of the job; you have to keep pushing ahead. You have to get that information out there." Though floods and tornados – and the fatalities that result from them – dominate headlines, Kapela noted that excessive heat is consistently the No. 1 weather-related killer. "It's not a visual thing; it creeps on you, it's a silent killer," he said. "In big cities, you have buildings without air conditioning. There are certain medications that can prohibit sweating." The Weather Service works with relief agencies and community organizations to alleviate the dangers and spread information, Kapela said, but it's still a battle. Thoughts on technology Weather reporting isn't 100 percent predictable, nor will it be any time soon. Kapela said this is a matter of scope. "The unpredictability is that we can't sample all of the atmosphere around the world at once," he said. "Our weather is influenced by what's going on in the oceans and we can't know all that's happening in the oceans. There is much we don't know yet." But, Kapela said, there have been technological advances that Submitted photo Warning coordination meteorologist Rusty Kapela of the National Weather Service has been in the meteorology business for nearly 36 years and will retire in early September. increase the accuracy of predictions, and the pool of citizen volunteers contributing to the cause is better trained than ever before. "The knowledge of weather phenomenon continues to improve," he said. "The social media aspect is huge for getting warnings out there. Not only do we get the messages out sooner, but smartphones and other devices allow for people to document what is happening." Trained severe weather spotters can provide valuable information from what is happening before, during or after severe weather. "If the radar is right on the fence about what is developing, a severe weather spotter is our eyes on the ground level," he said. "After the storm, they can provide information. As an example, they can document the damage from a tornado and the path it took." What about global warming? The official opinion of the National Weather Service is that mankind is partially responsible for the climate change that has been occurring. "How much is mankind responsible?" Kapela asked. "Is it 50 percent? 100 percent? We don't know. There are naturally occurring things that affect the change, such as the tilt of the earth's axis, its rotation around the sun, etc." Hard to predict retirement Kapela isn't quite sure what retirement holds for him. He's been fascinated by weather as long as he can remember. Rather than predicting the future, he reflected back on the moment that launched his career. "It was a science project back in fifth grade," he explained. "We had to follow the weather over a certain period of time, watching the TV reports, reading the paper, documenting what we observed. I just never stopped." He said the future of meteorology looks bright, if crowded. "Universities and colleges are graduating between 600 and 800 new meteorologists per year," Kapela said. "Only half find jobs in the first year. It's a competitive field." Contact Josh Perttunen jperttunen@conleynet.com

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