Jersey Shore Magazine

J e r s e y s h o r e • S p r i n g 2 0 1 6 12 BEACHCOMBER continued from page 11 Jill Ocone D o people really want a border wall between the United States and Mexico? Are people satisfied with Superstorm Sandy recovery three years after the storm? Which presidential candidate has the lead? Do people feel more stress or more joy during the holiday season? If you want to know the answers to these questions and more, the Monmouth University Polling Institute, located at Monmouth University in Long Branch, has already done the work for you through polling, researching, and publishing its findings. Patrick Murray was named found- ing director when he established the Institute in 2005. Over the past ten years, the Institute has proven to be the Garden State's "poll of record" for its work in tracking public policy and quality of life issues here in New Jersey. The Monmouth University Polling Institute was established to be a leading center for the study of public opinion on important state The Monmouth University Polling Institute Reaching The Nation From The Jersey Shore and national issues. The Institute's mission is to foster greater public accountability by ensuring that the voice of the public is part of the pol- icy discourse. "Our job is to amplify the voice of the public, and ensure that the voice of the public is a part of policy discussion," Murray said. Murray explained that the Institute began with a focus on New Jersey issues only and, at the time, was a partner with the Asbury Park Press. "We did some contractual work for government agencies and non-profits and worked with a very small crew," he said. "We started gaining a repu- tation for what we were doing, not just for election polls, but for the kinds of questions that we asked. They were different from what other pollsters were asking." That approach to question writ- ing is what sets the Monmouth University Polling Institute apart. Murray explained, "We look for interesting topics, or topics that others are not talking about, or in a way they are not talking about. That makes a difference." The Institute's staff has conducted Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. interviews with hundreds of thou- sands of survey respondents and more than one hundred focus groups. The process begins with identifying issues that affect local, state, and national populations, then deciding on the best way to garner opinions about those issues. For most of its non-election public issue polls, the Institute uses what is called a ran- dom digit dial "probability" sampling design to select survey participants, with telephone numbers randomly generated by a computer. These tele- phone numbers include landlines, cell lines, and unlisted numbers. The Institute uses a private vendor (not on campus) to make the tele- phone calls for each poll. If you were to receive a call from the Institute, there would be a human being on the other end of the line. After results are received, the sam- ple is "weighted" to make sure the results are representative of the pop- ulation, including age groups, gender, geography, age, race, and education. Weighting with current census fig- ures ensures that findings are repre- sentative of the target population. Murray said that in 2010, the Institute started polling outside of New Jersey for congressional and senate races in other states. Then in 2012, it did some national polling about the presidential election. That is when the Institute began getting noticed in the national arena. The success in applying their method- ology to elections in other states, combined with a new administration at Monmouth University, resulted in the Institute making a commitment to be a national pollster. In 2013, the Monmouth University Poll was recognized as the only poll that correctly forecasted the out- comes of both the November guber- natorial race and the October senate contests in New Jersey before either election took place. Murray commented that as polling for the 2016 presidential election began, the spin put on one of their

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